The Premier League title race has taken an unexpected turn as leading bookmakers Paddy Power and Betfred have made the bold move to pay out early on Liverpool winning the 2024/25 season. This decision comes in the wake of Arsenal’s shock 2-1 defeat to West Ham United, which has left the Gunners trailing Liverpool by a substantial margin.
The Turning Point: Arsenal’s Stumble
Arsenal’s loss to West Ham at the Emirates Stadium has proven to be a pivotal moment in the title race. The Gunners, who were considered Liverpool’s closest challengers, now find themselves 11 points adrift of the league leaders with just 11 matches remaining.
West Ham’s Jarrod Bowen delivered the decisive blow, scoring his 50th Premier League goal to secure a crucial victory for the Hammers. This result not only dented Arsenal’s title aspirations but also prompted bookmakers to reassess the likelihood of any team catching Liverpool at this stage of the season.
Bowen, elated after his match-winning performance, remarked, “It was a beautiful ball in, I couldn’t miss. It was really important to win the game.”
Bookmakers’ Gamble
Both Paddy Power and Betfred have decided to pay out on bets placed on Liverpool to win the Premier League title, despite there being nearly a third of the season still to play.
A spokesperson for Paddy Power stated, “We’ve seen enough. Liverpool’s form has been relentless, and with Arsenal dropping points, we believe the title race is all but over. We’re confident enough to pay out early to our customers who backed the Reds.”
Betfred’s decision is particularly noteworthy, as it marks the tenth time the bookmaker has paid out early on a Premier League winner. Fred Done, co-founder of Betfred, explained the rationale behind the move:
“As a lifelong Manchester United fan, it pains me having to pay out on Liverpool winning the Premier League title for a second time. After this weekend’s results, I believe the writing is on the wall and Liverpool will win the league this season in convincing fashion. To anybody who’s backed them to win the title with us, go and collect your money.”
The Financial Implications
The early payout decision is not without its financial risks for the bookmakers. Betfred’s move is set to cost the company approximately £1 million, while Paddy Power has not disclosed the exact figure of their potential payout.
It’s worth noting that Betfred offered the industry’s top price on Liverpool to win the league at 9/1 at the start of the season. This generous odds offering has now resulted in a significant payout for punters who placed their faith in Jürgen Klopp’s side early on.
Historical Context
This is not the first time bookmakers have made such a bold move. In fact, Fred Done of Betfred has a history of early payouts, with varying degrees of success. Out of the nine previous occasions, he has been correct seven times.
However, the decision is not without risk. In 1998, Betfred became the first operator to pay out early on Manchester United winning the title, only for Arsenal to overturn a 12-point deficit and clinch the championship on the final day of the season.
Arsenal’s Reaction
The early payout by bookmakers has added salt to the wound for Arsenal and their supporters. Gunners manager Mikel Arteta expressed his frustration following the defeat to West Ham:
“I’m very, very angry. I hope the team is angry. That was nowhere near the levels we have to hit to win a Premier League.”
Arteta refused to blame the absence of key strikers for the poor performance, stating, “I refuse to blame the lack of strikers. I am talking about the players’ standards, me included. This level was not enough. You have to deliver and it has to be with quality to break down a good team.”
While Liverpool have not commented directly on the bookmakers’ decision, their focus remains on maintaining their impressive form and seeing out the season. The Reds face a crucial clash with Manchester City, which could see them extend their lead at the top of the table to 14 points.
Arne Slot will likely downplay any talk of the title being won until it’s mathematically certain. However, the confidence shown by bookmakers will undoubtedly boost the morale of Liverpool supporters.
With 11 games remaining, there’s still a mathematical possibility of a dramatic turnaround. However, Liverpool’s consistency throughout the season has put them in a commanding position.
Arsenal, meanwhile, face an uphill battle to regain ground. Arteta emphasized the need for a strong reaction from his team:
“First of all, suffer, 24 to 48 hours, suffer and feel the pain. Make sure we come back on Monday with bite and anger still in the stomach. Hopefully we have a positive reaction. We must understand we need to raise the level.”
Bookies Rarely Wrong
The decision by Paddy Power and Betfred to pay out early on Liverpool winning the Premier League title is a significant vote of confidence in the Reds’ championship credentials. While the season is not yet over, this move reflects the dominant position Liverpool have established.
As the Premier League enters its final stretch, all eyes will be on how the teams respond to this latest development. For Liverpool, the challenge will be to maintain their focus and not let complacency set in. For Arsenal and the chasing pack, the task is clear – to prove the bookmakers wrong and keep the title race alive until the very end.
